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Prediction for CME (2015-09-04T19:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2015-09-04T19:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/9262/-1
CME Note: filament eruption
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2015-09-08T01:28Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2015-09-09T12:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 30.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

:Issued: 2015 Sep 05 1230 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 50905
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 05 Sep 2015, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 05 Sep 2015 until 07 Sep 2015)
SOLAR FLARES  : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 05 Sep 2015  10CM FLUX: 090 / AP: 013
PREDICTIONS FOR 06 Sep 2015  10CM FLUX: 092 / AP: 017
PREDICTIONS FOR 07 Sep 2015  10CM FLUX: 094 / AP: 007
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low in past 24 h, no flares above the
B level. C-class flares remain possible. A partial halo CME (angular width
around 120 degrees) erupted on September 4 (first seen at 19:24 UT by
LASCO-C2), it originated from a filament eruption. It's slow (210 km/s),
faint and directed southwards, but an encounter with the Earth cannot be
discarded and may occur on September 9.
Geomagnetic conditions are unsettled. The effect from the fast speed stream
is fading out, conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled.
Nevertheless, the fast speed stream from a high latitude (northern) coronal
hole may arrive to the Earth in 24 to 48 h creating more active periods.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 026, BASED ON 16 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 04 Sep 2015
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 090
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 020
AK WINGST              : 020
ESTIMATED AP           : 024
ESTIMATED ISN          : 038, BASED ON 21 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
NONE
END

BT

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Lead Time: 64.23 hour(s)
Difference: -34.53 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2015-09-05T09:14Z

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